By Jamie Martin
This year’s Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures for corn and soybeans have shown an unusual trend. Typically buoyed by summer rallies due to weather-related uncertainties, both commodities are currently facing significant downturns.
December corn futures have dropped 19% since the beginning of 2024, matching their decline from the previous year, while November soybeans have decreased by 14% from January and are 21% lower compared to the same period in 2023.
The market's bearish stance is largely influenced by non-threatening weather conditions across the U.S. Corn Belt and subdued demand.
Notably, this year could mark the first time since 1975 that November soybeans have set their annual high at the year's outset. Similarly, December corn might record its peak early in the year for the first time since 2013.
Both commodities face steep climbs to revisit their January highs, with November soybeans needing a 16% increase to reach $12.37 per bushel, and December corn requiring a 23% surge to hit $5.02-1/4.
Historical data suggests that similar gains from this point in the year are rare, with the last occurrences in 2010 and 2020 linked to significant cuts in U.S. ending stock forecasts.
These dynamics are shaping a challenging landscape for traders and farmers, as the prospects for a seasonal price recovery appear slim under the current market conditions.
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Categories: National