By Blake Jackson
Wheat growers in Kentucky face fast-moving diseases that can appear shortly after rain, during flowering, or near harvest. With little warning, problems such as leaf diseases or Fusarium head blight can threaten both yield and grain quality.
To help growers react sooner and with more confidence, University of Kentucky researchers at the Martin-Gatton College of Agriculture, Food and Environment are developing practical, science-based tools for disease prediction.
Their work is part of the National Predictive Modeling Tool Initiative, a USDA-supported effort to advance disease forecasting across major crops. The Kentucky team focuses on soft red winter wheat, the most widely planted type in the state. “Our goal is simple,” Bradley said. “Give farmers clear, local risk information for leaf diseases so they can decide if a fungicide is worth it, when to apply it, and which product is likely to work.”
Researchers are validating a national stripe rust prediction model by comparing real-time field conditions with model forecasts. When the model signals higher risk, test plots receive fungicide applications, and outcomes are measured through yield, disease levels, and economic return. This helps determine whether the model accurately identifies when a spray is beneficial.
Another tool adds early detection through airborne pathogen monitoring. Spore traps are placed each spring, with samples analyzed weekly using DNA techniques to measure disease-causing organisms.
Combined with weather and field observations, this information helps researchers refine forecasting tools and develop new ones for diseases that lack reliable prediction systems.
Fusarium head blight remains Kentucky’s most persistent wheat challenge. This disease can contaminate grain with DON toxin, leading to discounts or load rejection. Research shows that pairing resistant varieties with well-timed fungicide applications provides an effective, practical strategy for reducing DON levels.
The project includes statewide collaboration, linking plant breeding, pathogen biology, and field trials to support disease-resistant varieties and management strategies. Kentucky’s role also includes building high-quality datasets from past and current disease seasons to strengthen national forecasting tools.
“This is about keeping Kentucky wheat profitable and marketable,” Bradley said. Accurate and timely risk information helps growers protect yield, grain quality and the markets that depend on this essential crop.
Photo Credit: gettyimages-ygrek
Categories: Kentucky, Crops, Wheat, Education